Commercial insurance price trends: CIAB, Ivans and Marsh, Q2 2026
Brokers surveyed by CIAB reported that commercial premiums at renewal fell an average of 0.3% across all lines in Q2 2026 (April-June), with small accounts at -0.5% and large accounts at -3.7%. Ivans, which measures the year-over-year premium on the same policy, reported commercial property at +6.40% and workers’ compensation at -1.37% for the same quarter. Marsh, whose clients are mostly larger buyers, reported US property rates down 13% and casualty rates up 7%. The three measure different things, so read them side by side rather than picking one.
Contents8 sections
Key takeaways
- CIAB’s Q2 2026 survey shows commercial property down 6.3% and workers’ comp down 3.2% at renewal, while commercial auto rose 4.5%, general liability 1.8% and umbrella 5.3%1.
- The same quarter in the Ivans Index shows property up 6.40% and workers’ comp down 1.37%, so the two series disagree on direction for property12.
- Marsh reports rates, mostly for larger clients: property -13%, casualty +7%, casualty excluding workers’ comp +11%3.
- NAIC’s mid-year 2026 report puts commercial lines direct premiums written up 4.5% from a year earlier, with workers’ comp the exception4.
- No Q3 2026 figures from any of the three had been released as of October 13, 2026.
Quick facts
| CIAB all lines, Q2 2026 | -0.3% average premium change at renewal (released Aug. 18, 2026)1 |
|---|---|
| CIAB by account size | Small -0.5%, medium -1.9%, large -3.7% 1 |
| Ivans BOP, Q2 2026 | +6.16% average renewal premium change (released July 16, 2026)2 |
| Marsh composite, Q2 2026 | -2% rate change; property -13%, casualty +7% 3 |
| NAIC first half 2026 | US P&C direct premiums written about $574 billion, combined ratio 92.5% 4 |
Three indexes, three different questions
Each series answers a different question, which is why the headline numbers do not line up.
CIAB (The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers). A quarterly survey of member brokers. Each respondent reports the average premium change at renewal by line and by account size1. CIAB sorts accounts by the commission and fees the broker earns: small is under $25,000, medium $25,000 to $100,000, large over $100,0001. This is premium, not filed rate, and it is an opinion survey of brokers, not a count of policies. The Q2 2026 report covers April 1 to June 30 and was released August 18, 20261.
Ivans Index (Ivans, part of Applied Systems). Ivans publishes it as a premium index drawn from agency-system transaction data rather than a survey; we could not open the release at ivans.com (blocked), so we do not state its scale or exact method. It covers BOP, general liability, commercial auto, umbrella, workers’ comp and property2. Q2 2026 results were released July 16, 20262.
Marsh Global Insurance Market Index. Marsh calls it “our proprietary measure of commercial insurance rate changes at renewal”, and says its rates “reflect the segment mix of Marsh’s client portfolio”3. That portfolio is mostly larger commercial accounts. Marsh publishes rate change, not premium change. The Q2 2026 figures appeared on Marsh’s regional pages dated July 22, 2026; the US page itself carries no date3.
Why the numbers differ
Account size
CIAB’s own table shows the gap: the average change was -0.5% for small accounts and -3.7% for large ones in Q2 20261. Marsh’s mostly large clients sit at the soft end for property: -13% overall, and its notes give -20% for catastrophe-exposed programs with more than $1 million of premium and -10% for non-catastrophe programs under $1 million3.
Rate versus premium
Premium is rate times exposure. Our calculation: if the rate falls 3% and insured payroll or property values rise 5%, the premium changes by 0.97 x 1.05 - 1 = +1.85%. A premium index can show an increase while a rate index shows a decrease. CIAB and Ivans report premium; Marsh reports rate123.
Policy mix
The three series do not cover the same policies, and we could not confirm from the sources how much of the property gap this explains.
Method
A survey average of broker opinions (CIAB), a transaction-data index (Ivans) and a carrier-and-client rate measure (Marsh) will differ even with identical markets.
What Q2 2026 shows by line
| Line | CIAB (premium)1 | Ivans (premium)2 | Marsh (rate)3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial property | -6.3 | +6.40 | -13 |
| General liability | +1.8 | +5.44 | casualty +7 (excl. workers’ comp +11) |
| Commercial auto | +4.5 | +4.93 | not published |
| Umbrella | +5.3 | +7.96 | +11 absolute, +15 risk-adjusted |
| Workers’ compensation | -3.2 | -1.37 | included in casualty |
| Business owner’s policy | not published | +6.16 | not published |
| Cyber | -3.2 | not published | -2 |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column.
All three agree on direction for liability and umbrella (up), workers’ comp (down) and cyber (down). They split on property, where CIAB and Marsh show falls and Ivans shows a rise. The full series are below, from the verified data files; CIAB’s marine figure is flagged in its note.
| Line or segment | Change |
|---|---|
| All account sizes | −2% |
| Small accounts | −0.5% |
| Medium accounts | −1.9% |
| Large accounts | −3.7% |
Average premium change at renewal reported by member brokers (%). Period: Q2 2026 (April 1-June 30, 2026). Released 2026-08-18. Source. Values from CIAB's own Q2 2026 report PDF ('Commercial Property/Casualty Market Index Q2/2026'), retrieved from a member-broker copy (https://www.thepartnersgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Q2-2026-survey-FINAL.pdf) because ciab.com returns 429 to scripts. Figures are broker-reported average premium change at renewal, not filed rates. Q3 2026 not yet released as of 2026-10-13.
| Line or segment | Change |
|---|---|
| Commercial auto | +4.5% |
| Workers compensation | −3.2% |
| Commercial property | −6.3% |
| General liability | +1.8% |
| Umbrella | +5.3% |
| Major lines average | +0.4% |
| All lines average | −0.3% |
| Broker E&O | +0.6% |
| Business interruption | −2.3% |
| Construction | −0.5% |
| Cyber | −3.2% |
| D&O liability | −2.1% |
| Employment practices | −1.5% |
| Flood | −0.3% |
| Marine | +0.3% |
| Medical malpractice | +1.8% |
| Surety bonds | +0.2% |
| Terrorism | −0.3% |
Average premium change at renewal reported by member brokers (%). Period: Q2 2026 (April 1-June 30, 2026). Released 2026-08-18. Source. Values from CIAB's own Q2 2026 report PDF ('Commercial Property/Casualty Market Index Q2/2026'), retrieved from a member-broker copy (https://www.thepartnersgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Q2-2026-survey-FINAL.pdf) because ciab.com returns 429 to scripts. Figures are broker-reported average premium change at renewal, not filed rates. Marine: table shows +0.3%, but the report narrative lists marine among the 10 lines that decreased (the table has only 9 negative lines); treat the marine value with caution. CIAB does not publish a BOP line.
| Line or segment | Change |
|---|---|
| Business owner's policy (BOP) | +6.16% |
| Commercial auto | +4.93% |
| General liability | +5.44% |
| Umbrella | +7.96% |
| Workers' compensation | −1.37% |
| Commercial property | +6.4% |
Average premium renewal rate change: premium difference year over year for a single consistent policy (%). Period: Q2 2026. Released 2026-07-16. Source. Quarterly average of monthly values. Q3 2026 not yet released as of 2026-10-13 (latest monthly release: August 2026 results, 2026-09-09).
| Line or segment | Change |
|---|---|
| Composite | −2% |
| Property | −13% |
| Casualty | +7% |
| Casualty excluding workers compensation | +11% |
| Umbrella/excess, risk-adjusted | +15% |
| Umbrella/excess, absolute | +11% |
| Financial and professional lines | +1% |
| D&O liability | +1% |
| Fiduciary | +4% |
| Financial institutions | −1% |
| Cyber | −2% |
Year-over-year rate change at renewal (%). Period: Q2 2026. Released 2026-07-22. Source. Released date taken from the Q2 2026 regional pages (07/22/2026); the US page itself is undated. Property: cat-exposed programs >US$1m premium -20%, non-cat programs <US$1m -10%. Q3 2026 not yet published on the page as of 2026-10-13.
CIAB says respondents reported decreases in 10 lines, led by property. Workers’ comp is its eighteenth consecutive quarterly decrease and cyber its ninth. Umbrella rose for the 35th consecutive quarter1. NAIC’s summary adds that commercial auto premiums have risen for 60 consecutive quarters, a count it attributes to CIAB and that we did not find in CIAB’s own report text4.
Market size and mid-year 2026 results
Price changes apply to a market of known size. NAIC’s 2025 market-share data, from statutory annual statements, gives direct premiums written (before reinsurance) by line. Other liability (statement lines 17.1 and 17.2, which cover general liability other than products) is the largest business line, at more than twice the workers’ comp figure (our calculation from the table: $130.9 billion against $57.7 billion).
| Line | Direct premiums written | Loss ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Total All Lines | $1116.1 billion | 57.0% |
| Fire | $32.5 billion | 45.0% |
| Allied Lines | $30.7 billion | 25.6% |
| Federal Flood | $3.6 billion | 26.6% |
| Private Flood | $1.3 billion | 17.5% |
| Total Commercial Multiple Peril | $70.1 billion | 47.5% |
| Ocean Marine | $5.7 billion | 45.4% |
| Inland Marine | $35.7 billion | 38.2% |
| 11.1, 11.2 - Medical Professional Liability | $13.7 billion | 58.8% |
| Earthquake | $5.0 billion | 0.3% |
| Workers Compensation | $58.0 billion | 49.8% |
| 17.1, 17.2 - Other Liability | $134.0 billion | 69.8% |
| Excess workers Compensation | $1.2 billion | 48.6% |
| 18.1, 18.2 - Products Liability | $5.8 billion | 49.7% |
| Aircraft | $3.1 billion | 55.0% |
| Fidelity | $1.5 billion | 37.0% |
| Surety | $11.7 billion | 24.6% |
| Burglary and Theft | $0.7 billion | 26.3% |
| Boiler and Machinery | $3.1 billion | 29.2% |
| Total Commercial Auto (19.3, 19.4, 21.2) | $77.8 billion | 66.8% |
Direct premiums written/earned in thousands of US dollars; loss ratios = direct losses incurred / direct premiums earned (calendar year). National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), 2025 Market Share Reports for Property/Casualty Groups and Companies by State and Countrywide.
NAIC’s first-half 2026 report, covering January to June, shows how the softer pricing looks on the insurer side4:
- Industry direct premiums written rose 2.3% to about $574 billion, the second consecutive year of slower growth. The report’s table prints $574.1 billion and its text $574.4 billion.
- Commercial lines direct premiums written rose 4.5% from a year earlier, in every major line except workers’ comp, where premium is flat or falling.
- Other liability rose 7.3% to $70.9 billion and commercial auto liability 7.2% to $32.9 billion.
- The industry combined ratio was 92.5%, against 96.4% in the first half of 2025. Under 100% means an underwriting profit; NAIC reports $38.6 billion.
- Direct loss ratios: other liability 65.8% (up 1.5 points); commercial auto liability 71.0% (down 1.5 points); workers’ comp 51.8%.
NAIC describes property as softening while liability lines “remain firm” because of social inflation4. That matches the split in the table above. The first-half totals cannot be doubled to estimate full-year 2026, since the year’s catastrophe losses are not yet known.
What a buyer can use from this
None of these indexes is your price. They describe the average change on renewals; your change depends on your own loss history, exposure and class. Pick the index closest to your account: CIAB’s small-account column and the Ivans lines for a small business, Marsh for a multi-million-dollar program. For a workers’ comp renewal, compare your change with the approved rate changes in workers’ comp cost by state. For dollar levels, see workers’ compensation, general liability, commercial auto and commercial property.
Release schedule
| Series | Q2 2026 released | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| CIAB | August 18, 2026 | Not released as of October 13, 2026 |
| Ivans | July 16, 2026 | Not released as of October 13, 2026 |
| Marsh | July 22, 2026 (regional pages) | Not published as of October 13, 2026 |
The Q3 2026 releases are expected, but none of the three had published a date we could confirm. This page will be updated when they appear.
Sources
- 1
- 2 Ivans (Applied Systems), Ivans Index Q2 2026 Results Released Checked 13 Oct 2026 · Back to text ↑
- 3 Marsh, Global Insurance Market Index: US insurance rates, Q2 2026 Checked 13 Oct 2026 · Back to text ↑
- 4
- 5
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